John Cena’s odds of winning the 2025 Royal Rumble are slim, but his entry adds a compelling element to the match. Given WWE’s recent trajectory and the next generation of stars, Cena’s victory isn’t a sure bet. With this in mind, here’s a more in-depth breakdown of why Cena’s chances might be lower than they seem and what could impact his final Rumble performance.
1. The Storytelling Factor
John Cena’s return to the Rumble would be a storytelling goldmine. A win could set up a match at WrestleMania and close his career in a high-stakes, dramatic way. But WWE may lean towards having Cena enter to add nostalgia and hype, while ultimately using his presence to elevate newer or current stars. With Roman Reigns, Seth Rollins, Cody Rhodes, and LA Knight on the roster, WWE has multiple options for WrestleMania matchups without Cena necessarily headlining. While Cena’s return would likely guarantee a WrestleMania spot, he might be involved in a personal or special attraction match rather than a championship.
2. The Focus on Emerging Stars
Cena’s reputation as a star who boosts other talent is well-established. WWE often uses high-profile veterans to legitimize emerging stars. Cena could serve that purpose here, adding credibility to whoever eliminates him. The Rumble has always been a perfect spot to build storylines and rivalries. If Cena gets eliminated by someone WWE is pushing, such as Solo Sikoa, Austin Theory, or even a surprise debut, it could lead to a blockbuster Mania match or build interest in a younger talent.
3. WWE’s Youth Movement
WWE seems focused on building the future, as seen in recent pushes for Gunther, Dominik Mysterio, and Bron Breakker. These talents are rising, and a Rumble victory would further their trajectory. Cena winning might feel more like a nostalgic choice than a forward-looking decision. WWE may prefer to give the spotlight to a newer star who can benefit from it longer term.
4. Cena’s Final Royal Rumble – A “Farewell” Scenario
Cena’s final Royal Rumble could be treated as a farewell celebration. With Cena himself framing the match as his last Rumble, WWE might take this opportunity to create a send-off that honors his legacy without necessarily granting him the win. WWE could highlight Cena’s Rumble career, from his surprise returns to his iconic wins, letting his presence be the story.
5. A WrestleMania-Driven Outcome
WWE traditionally uses the Rumble to set up WrestleMania’s main event. Cena’s win could make sense if it’s leading to a blockbuster “last match” storyline. If WWE wants to set Cena up for a major farewell at WrestleMania, they could use the Rumble win to propel that. However, WWE may already have plans for WrestleMania that involve other storylines, and Cena could find himself in a high-profile match without needing the Rumble win.
6. WWE’s Current Champions
WWE’s champions, such as Seth Rollins, Roman Reigns, or even Gunther, offer rich storytelling options that might not require a Cena vs. champion matchup. Cena could face one of these champions in a non-title setting, adding to the match’s significance without needing a Rumble win to validate it. For instance, if Cena wants a rematch with Roman Reigns, WWE could create a storyline around it without the Rumble win, freeing the victory for a current star.
7. The Popular Sentiment for Cena’s Rumble Win
WWE fans would undoubtedly welcome the excitement of Cena winning. It’s a fitting way to cap off his career with a memorable final moment. WWE could potentially lean into this, setting up a story about Cena wanting one last Rumble victory. However, the emotional pull might be offset by WWE’s desire to build new stars and use this high-stakes match to further their development.
8. The Return of Surprise Entrants and Legends
The Rumble match often sees a mix of legends and surprise entrants. Cena’s presence would add to the star power, but WWE could include other surprises, diluting the focus on Cena’s chances to win. Legends could create memorable moments, but WWE might use these surprises to elevate emerging stars rather than handing Cena the victory.
9. The “Passing the Torch” Element
If WWE wants to create a “passing the torch” moment, Cena’s presence could set up an opportunity to give a star like Cody Rhodes, LA Knight, or Bron Breakker a victory that feels like a huge achievement. WWE has relied on Cena’s legacy to help elevate stars, and the Rumble could be a perfect opportunity to let Cena symbolically pass the torch by being eliminated by an emerging or current main eventer.
10. Cena’s Role as a Veteran Entrant
WWE sometimes uses veteran entrants in the Rumble to add excitement but not necessarily as winners. Cena’s entry could add intrigue and drama without a serious expectation of victory. The fans would get their Cena moment, but WWE might still choose a winner with more storyline potential for WrestleMania’s title picture.
In conclusion, while Cena winning would be a satisfying full-circle moment, there are plenty of reasons WWE may choose another direction. Cena’s final Rumble will surely be memorable, whether he wins or not, and will likely create moments that fans remember long after the event. Given all these factors, Cena’s chance of winning the 2025 Royal Rumble could be estimated at around 20-30%. The decision would be impactful and nostalgic, but WWE may ultimately prioritize building newer stars or setting up a marquee title match that doesn’t hinge on Cena’s win.